JAXPHI
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 2.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jaguars +1.3, Eagles -10.0.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,030 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 11 or more.
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · PHI n/a | JAX 70% · PHI 30% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -230 · PHI +230 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 19, JAX 24.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 22 and PHI by 11.
Side by side
| JAX | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | PHI 17 @ JAX 19 | JAX | JAX -7.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | JAX 23 @ PHI 28 | PHI | PHI -7.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | JAX 21 @ PHI 29 | PHI | PHI -6.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | PHI 24 @ JAX 18 | PHI | PHI -4 |
| 2014-09-07 | 2014 Wk 1 | JAX 17 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PHI -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away