JAXPIT
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 1.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Steelers 11th (+2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,290 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Jaguars +1.3.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Steelers rank 14th (7.0%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · PIT n/a | JAX 57% · PIT 43% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -133 · PIT +133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, JAX 23.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 18 and PIT by 14.
Side by side
| JAX | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | JAX 20 @ PIT 10 | JAX | JAX -2.5 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | PIT 27 @ JAX 3 | PIT | PIT -11 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | PIT 20 @ JAX 16 | PIT | PIT -4 |
| 2018-01-14 | 2017 Divisional | JAX 45 @ PIT 42 | JAX | PIT -7 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | JAX 30 @ PIT 9 | JAX | PIT -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away