JAXSF
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Jaguars cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- History: 49ers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Jaguars win 4,470 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · SF n/a | JAX 45% · SF 55% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX +124 · SF -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 25, JAX 23.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 15 and SF by 18.
Side by side
| JAX | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | JAX 26 @ SF 21 | JAX | SF -3.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | SF 34 @ JAX 3 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | SF 30 @ JAX 10 | SF | SF -6.5 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | JAX 33 @ SF 44 | SF | JAX -4 |
| 2013-10-27 | 2013 Wk 8 | SF 42 @ JAX 10 | SF | SF -16 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away