KCARI
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 5.1 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,570 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Cardinals rank 17th (6.5%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · ARI n/a | KC 74% · ARI 26% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -288 · ARI +288 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, KC 27.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 24 and ARI by 8.
Side by side
| KC | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | KC 44 @ ARI 21 | KC | KC -6 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | ARI 14 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -16.5 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | KC 14 @ ARI 17 | ARI | KC -2.5 |
| 2010-11-21 | 2010 Wk 11 | ARI 13 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -7 |
| 2006-10-08 | 2006 Wk 5 | KC 23 @ ARI 20 | KC | KC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away