KCATL
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 3.6 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Falcons rank 22nd (5.6%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · ATL n/a | KC 62% · ATL 38% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -164 · ATL +164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 21, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 20 and ATL by 13.
Side by side
| KC | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | KC 22 @ ATL 17 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | ATL 14 @ KC 17 | KC | KC -11 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | KC 29 @ ATL 28 | KC | ATL -5 |
| 2012-09-09 | 2012 Wk 1 | ATL 40 @ KC 24 | ATL | ATL -1 |
| 2008-09-21 | 2008 Wk 3 | KC 14 @ ATL 38 | ATL | ATL -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away