KCBAL
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Ravens rank 16th (6.6%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · BAL n/a | KC 55% · BAL 45% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -123 · BAL +123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 23, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 18 and BAL by 15.
Side by side
| KC | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | BAL 20 @ KC 37 | KC | BAL -2.5 |
| 2024-09-05 | 2024 Wk 1 | BAL 20 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023 Conf. title | KC 17 @ BAL 10 | KC | BAL -4.5 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | KC 35 @ BAL 36 | BAL | KC -3.5 |
| 2020-09-28 | 2020 Wk 3 | KC 34 @ BAL 20 | KC | BAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away