KCCAR
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 2.8 points stronger.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Panthers -9.0.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 13 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Panthers rank 1st (100.0%), Chiefs 28th (68.8%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · CAR n/a | KC 62% · CAR 38% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -163 · CAR +163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 21, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 21 and CAR by 13.
Side by side
| KC | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | KC 30 @ CAR 27 | KC | KC -11 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | CAR 31 @ KC 33 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | KC 20 @ CAR 17 | KC | CAR -3 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | CAR 21 @ KC 27 | KC | CAR -5 |
| 2008-10-05 | 2008 Wk 5 | KC 0 @ CAR 34 | CAR | CAR -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away