KCCLE
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 5.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,990 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.3 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · CLE n/a | KC 70% · CLE 30% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -235 · CLE +235 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 17, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 23 and CLE by 10.
Side by side
| KC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | KC 21 @ CLE 7 | KC | KC -4.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | CLE 29 @ KC 33 | KC | KC -5.5 |
| 2021-01-17 | 2020 Divisional | CLE 17 @ KC 22 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | KC 37 @ CLE 21 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2015-12-27 | 2015 Wk 16 | CLE 13 @ KC 17 | KC | KC -11.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away