KCDET
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Chiefs +0.7.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Lions win 5,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 8th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Chiefs win 5,000 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.1 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · DET n/a | KC 50% · DET 50% |
| Fair moneyline | KC +100 · DET -100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 26, KC 26.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 16 and DET by 17.
Side by side
| KC | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | DET 17 @ KC 30 | KC | KC -2.5 |
| 2023-09-07 | 2023 Wk 1 | DET 21 @ KC 20 | DET | KC -4 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | KC 34 @ DET 30 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2015 Wk 8 | DET 10 @ KC 45 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2011-09-18 | 2011 Wk 2 | KC 3 @ DET 48 | DET | DET -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away