KCLA
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Simulation: Rams win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Chiefs cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 0.6 points stronger.
- Strength: Rams rank 5th in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.06).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Chiefs win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Rams 12th (+1.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · LA n/a | KC 44% · LA 56% |
| Fair moneyline | KC +128 · LA -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 24, KC 23.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 14 and LA by 19.
Side by side
| KC | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | LA 10 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -16.5 |
| 2018-11-19 | 2018 Wk 11 | KC 51 @ LA 54 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Wk 8 | LA 7 @ KC 34 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2010-12-19 | 2010 Wk 15 | KC 27 @ LA 13 | KC | LA -3 |
| 2006-11-05 | 2006 Wk 9 | KC 31 @ LA 17 | KC | LA -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away