KCMIA
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 6.4 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,270 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · MIA n/a | KC 77% · MIA 23% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -341 · MIA +341 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 17, KC 26.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 25 and MIA by 7.
Side by side
| KC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 1-5 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | KC 24 @ MIA 10 | KC | KC -10 |
| 2024-01-13 | 2023 Wild Card | MIA 7 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -4.5 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | MIA 14 @ KC 21 | KC | KC -1 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | KC 33 @ MIA 27 | KC | KC -7.5 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | MIA 13 @ KC 29 | KC | KC -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away