KCNO
Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.1 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Saints 28th (-0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,170 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · NO n/a | KC 68% · NO 32% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -215 · NO +215 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 20, KC 26.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 22 and NO by 11.
Side by side
| KC | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-07 | 2024 Wk 5 | NO 13 @ KC 26 | KC | KC -5.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | KC 32 @ NO 29 | KC | KC -2.5 |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Wk 7 | NO 21 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -6 |
| 2012-09-23 | 2012 Wk 3 | KC 27 @ NO 24 | KC | NO -9 |
| 2008-11-16 | 2008 Wk 11 | NO 30 @ KC 20 | NO | NO -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away