KCPHI
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 2.7 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Chiefs +0.7, Eagles -10.0.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,340 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 11 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Chiefs 28th (68.8%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · PHI n/a | KC 67% · PHI 33% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -199 · PHI +199 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 19, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 22 and PHI by 11.
Side by side
| KC | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | PHI 20 @ KC 17 | PHI | PHI -1.5 |
| 2025-02-09 | 2024 Super Bowl | KC 22 @ PHI 40 | PHI | KC -1.5 |
| 2023-11-20 | 2023 Wk 11 | PHI 21 @ KC 17 | PHI | KC -2.5 |
| 2023-02-12 | 2022 Super Bowl | KC 38 @ PHI 35 | KC | PHI -1 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | KC 42 @ PHI 30 | KC | KC -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away