KCSEA
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Travel: Chiefs cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Chiefs win 3,930 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Seahawks 18th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · SEA n/a | KC 39% · SEA 61% |
| Fair moneyline | KC +154 · SEA -154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 23, KC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 13 and SEA by 20.
Side by side
| KC | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | KC 3 @ SEA 20 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | SEA 10 @ KC 24 | KC | KC -10.5 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | KC 31 @ SEA 38 | SEA | KC -1 |
| 2014-11-16 | 2014 Wk 11 | SEA 20 @ KC 24 | KC | SEA -1 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | KC 42 @ SEA 24 | KC | KC -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away