KCWAS
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Commanders rank 23rd (4.8%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · WAS n/a | KC 72% · WAS 28% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -253 · WAS +253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 20, KC 27.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 24 and WAS by 9.
Side by side
| KC | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | 2025 Wk 8 | WAS 7 @ KC 28 | KC | KC -10.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | KC 31 @ WAS 13 | KC | KC -6 |
| 2017-10-02 | 2017 Wk 4 | WAS 20 @ KC 29 | KC | KC -6.5 |
| 2013-12-08 | 2013 Wk 14 | KC 45 @ WAS 10 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2009-10-18 | 2009 Wk 6 | KC 14 @ WAS 6 | KC | WAS -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away