LAARI
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.7 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,400 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 8 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Cardinals rank 17th (6.5%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -8 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.3 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · ARI n/a | LA 76% · ARI 24% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -317 · ARI +317 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, LA 29.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 25 and ARI by 8.
Side by side
| LA | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | ARI 18 @ LA 16 | ARI | LA -12.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | ARI 20 @ LA 37 | LA | LA -14.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | LA 45 @ ARI 17 | LA | LA -9.5 |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024 Wk 17 | ARI 9 @ LA 13 | LA | LA -6.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | LA 10 @ ARI 41 | ARI | LA -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away