LABUF
Los Angeles Rams @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Rams 17th (3.6).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Rams win 4,580 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 14 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Bills 17th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.4 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · BUF n/a | LA 46% · BUF 54% |
| Fair moneyline | LA +118 · BUF -118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, LA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 14 and BUF by 18.
Side by side
| LA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 2026 Wk 5 | BUF 37 @ LA 34 | BUF | LA -3.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | BUF 42 @ LA 44 | LA | BUF -3.5 |
| 2022-09-08 | 2022 Wk 1 | BUF 31 @ LA 10 | BUF | BUF -1 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | LA 32 @ BUF 35 | BUF | BUF -1.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | BUF 30 @ LA 19 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away