LALAC
Los Angeles Rams @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 3.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,130 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Chargers rank 19th (6.0%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.1 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · LAC n/a | LA 69% · LAC 31% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -219 · LAC +219 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 20, LA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 22 and LAC by 11.
Side by side
| LA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 0-6 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | LA 10 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -6.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | LAC 23 @ LA 35 | LA | LA -7.5 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | LA 24 @ LAC 27 | LAC | LAC -4 |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 Wk 6 | LAC 17 @ LA 20 | LA | LAC -9.5 |
| 2006-10-29 | 2006 Wk 8 | LA 24 @ LAC 38 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away