LAMIN
Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.0 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Simulation: Rams win 5,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- History: Rams won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Strength: Rams rank 5th in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.06).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,960 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Rams 12th (+1.6).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · MIN n/a | LA 50% · MIN 50% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -102 · MIN +102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 23, LA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 17 and MIN by 17.
Side by side
| LA | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | 2024 Wild Card | MIN 9 @ LA 27 | LA | MIN -2.5 |
| 2024-10-24 | 2024 Wk 8 | MIN 20 @ LA 30 | LA | MIN -3 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | LA 30 @ MIN 23 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2018-09-27 | 2018 Wk 4 | MIN 31 @ LA 38 | LA | LA -7.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | LA 7 @ MIN 24 | MIN | MIN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away