LAPIT
Los Angeles Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Efficiency (EPA per play): worth about 0.5 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,220 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.8 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · PIT n/a | LA 58% · PIT 42% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -137 · PIT +137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, LA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 19 and PIT by 14.
Side by side
| LA | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | PIT 24 @ LA 17 | PIT | LA -3.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | LA 12 @ PIT 17 | PIT | LA -4 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | PIT 12 @ LA 6 | PIT | LA -1.5 |
| 2011-12-24 | 2011 Wk 16 | LA 0 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -10 |
| 2007-12-20 | 2007 Wk 16 | PIT 41 @ LA 24 | PIT | PIT -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away