LAWAS
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,720 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · WAS n/a | LA 73% · WAS 27% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -267 · WAS +267 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 21, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 24 and WAS by 10.
Side by side
| LA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | WAS 20 @ LA 28 | LA | LA -6.5 |
| 2020-10-11 | 2020 Wk 5 | LA 30 @ WAS 10 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | WAS 27 @ LA 20 | WAS | LA -3 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | LA 10 @ WAS 24 | WAS | LA -3 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | LA 24 @ WAS 0 | LA | LA -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away