LACDET
Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Lions in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 2.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,960 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 28th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.5 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · DET n/a | LAC 30% · DET 70% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +238 · DET -238 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 28, LAC 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 9 and DET by 24.
Side by side
| LAC | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 4-2 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | DET 41 @ LAC 38 | DET | DET -2.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | LAC 10 @ DET 13 | DET | LAC -1 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | DET 28 @ LAC 33 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 2011-12-24 | 2011 Wk 16 | LAC 10 @ DET 38 | DET | LAC -1 |
| 2007-12-16 | 2007 Wk 15 | DET 14 @ LAC 51 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away