LACGB
Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Packers rank 15th (+0.9), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Simulation: Packers win 6,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,090 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · GB n/a | LAC 31% · GB 69% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +224 · GB -224 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 10 and GB by 23.
Side by side
| LAC | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | LAC 20 @ GB 23 | GB | LAC -3 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | GB 11 @ LAC 26 | LAC | GB -4 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | LAC 20 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -10.5 |
| 2011-11-06 | 2011 Wk 9 | GB 45 @ LAC 38 | GB | GB -5.5 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | LAC 24 @ GB 31 | GB | LAC -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away