LACJAX
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 2.4 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,430 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · JAX n/a | LAC 24% · JAX 76% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +312 · JAX -312 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, LAC 17.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 7 and JAX by 26.
Side by side
| LAC | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 4-2 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | LAC 6 @ JAX 35 | JAX | LAC -3 |
| 2023-01-14 | 2022 Wild Card | LAC 30 @ JAX 31 | JAX | LAC -2 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | JAX 38 @ LAC 10 | JAX | LAC -6.5 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | JAX 29 @ LAC 39 | LAC | LAC -8 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | LAC 45 @ JAX 10 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away