LACNYG
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Giants in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Travel: Chargers cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 2.5 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Giants lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.5 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · NYG n/a | LAC 49% · NYG 51% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +104 · NYG -104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 22, LAC 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 15 and NYG by 18.
Side by side
| LAC | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | LAC 18 @ NYG 21 | NYG | LAC -6 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | NYG 21 @ LAC 37 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | LAC 27 @ NYG 22 | LAC | NYG -3 |
| 2013-12-08 | 2013 Wk 14 | NYG 14 @ LAC 37 | LAC | LAC -4.5 |
| 2009-11-08 | 2009 Wk 9 | LAC 21 @ NYG 20 | LAC | NYG -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away