LVCAR
Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 1.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Panthers -9.0, Raiders -15.0.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Panthers 16th (+0.0).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Panthers 24th (7.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · CAR n/a | LV 40% · CAR 60% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +151 · CAR -151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 26, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 13 and CAR by 20.
Side by side
| LV | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | CAR 36 @ LV 22 | CAR | LV -5.5 |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020 Wk 1 | LV 34 @ CAR 30 | LV | LV -3 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | CAR 32 @ LV 35 | LV | LV -3.5 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | LV 6 @ CAR 17 | CAR | CAR -9.5 |
| 2008-11-09 | 2008 Wk 10 | CAR 17 @ LV 6 | CAR | CAR -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away