LVCHI
Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 2.9 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bears -3.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Bears win 7,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,810 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 9 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · CHI n/a | LV 28% · CHI 72% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +256 · CHI -256 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 9 and CHI by 24.
Side by side
| LV | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | CHI 25 @ LV 24 | CHI | LV -1.5 |
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | LV 12 @ CHI 30 | CHI | LV -2.5 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | CHI 20 @ LV 9 | CHI | LV -5.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | CHI 21 @ LV 24 | LV | CHI -6.5 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | LV 20 @ CHI 22 | CHI | LV -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away