LVCIN
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 3.9 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,430 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · CIN n/a | LV 24% · CIN 76% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +312 · CIN -312 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 29, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 7 and CIN by 25.
Side by side
| LV | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | LV 24 @ CIN 41 | CIN | CIN -8 |
| 2022-01-15 | 2021 Wild Card | LV 19 @ CIN 26 | CIN | CIN -6 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | CIN 32 @ LV 13 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | CIN 10 @ LV 17 | LV | LV -13 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | LV 16 @ CIN 30 | CIN | CIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away