LVDAL
Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 3.6 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Raiders rank 15th (6.7%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.3 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · DAL n/a | LV 31% · DAL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +226 · DAL -226 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 29, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 10 and DAL by 24.
Side by side
| LV | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | 2025 Wk 11 | DAL 33 @ LV 16 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 2021-11-25 | 2021 Wk 12 | LV 36 @ DAL 33 | LV | DAL -7 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | DAL 20 @ LV 17 | DAL | DAL -3 |
| 2013-11-28 | 2013 Wk 13 | LV 24 @ DAL 31 | DAL | DAL -10 |
| 2009-11-26 | 2009 Wk 12 | LV 7 @ DAL 24 | DAL | DAL -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away