LVHOU
Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 3.8 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Texans win 7,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,860 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Raiders rank 6th (49.6), Texans 28th (72.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · HOU n/a | LV 29% · HOU 71% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +249 · HOU -249 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 27, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 10 and HOU by 24.
Side by side
| LV | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | LV 21 @ HOU 23 | HOU | HOU -14.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | HOU 20 @ LV 38 | LV | LV -7 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | LV 24 @ HOU 27 | HOU | HOU -5 |
| 2017-01-07 | 2016 Wild Card | LV 14 @ HOU 27 | HOU | HOU -4 |
| 2016-11-21 | 2016 Wk 11 | HOU 20 @ LV 27 | LV | LV -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away