LVJAX
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jaguars +1.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,190 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Raiders rank 6th (49.6), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Raiders rank 15th (6.7%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Jaguars 12th (5.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -8.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.4 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · JAX n/a | LV 22% · JAX 78% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +356 · JAX -356 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 28, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 7 and JAX by 27.
Side by side
| LV | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | JAX 30 @ LV 29 | JAX | JAX -2.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | JAX 14 @ LV 19 | LV | LV -2.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | LV 20 @ JAX 27 | JAX | LV -2.5 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | JAX 20 @ LV 16 | JAX | LV -7 |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Wk 7 | LV 33 @ JAX 16 | LV | JAX -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away