LVLA
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,290 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Raiders rank 15th (6.7%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Raiders rank 6th (49.6), Rams 27th (69.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 50 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · LA n/a | LV 23% · LA 77% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +337 · LA -337 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 30, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 7 and LA by 27.
Side by side
| LV | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | LA 35 @ LV 21 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | LV 15 @ LA 20 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2022-12-08 | 2022 Wk 14 | LV 16 @ LA 17 | LA | LV -6.5 |
| 2018-09-10 | 2018 Wk 1 | LA 33 @ LV 13 | LA | LA -6 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | LV 0 @ LA 52 | LA | LA -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away