LVMIA
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Raiders about 1.8 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Dolphins 26th (-0.5).
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Dolphins 28th (9.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · MIA n/a | LV 56% · MIA 44% |
| Fair moneyline | LV -128 · MIA +128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 23, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 18 and MIA by 15.
Side by side
| LV | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | MIA 13 @ LV 27 | LV | LV -3 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | LV 19 @ MIA 34 | MIA | MIA -8 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | LV 13 @ MIA 20 | MIA | MIA -14 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | MIA 28 @ LV 31 | LV | LV -4 |
| 2020-12-26 | 2020 Wk 16 | MIA 26 @ LV 25 | MIA | MIA -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away