LVMIN
Las Vegas Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,580 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 8 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · MIN n/a | LV 26% · MIN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +287 · MIN -287 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 26, LV 17.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 8 and MIN by 25.
Side by side
| LV | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | MIN 3 @ LV 0 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | LV 14 @ MIN 34 | MIN | MIN -8.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | MIN 30 @ LV 14 | MIN | LV -3 |
| 2011-11-20 | 2011 Wk 11 | LV 27 @ MIN 21 | LV | MIN -1 |
| 2007-11-18 | 2007 Wk 11 | LV 22 @ MIN 29 | MIN | MIN -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away