LVPIT
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Steelers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,210 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · PIT n/a | LV 32% · PIT 68% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +212 · PIT -212 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 25, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 10 and PIT by 23.
Side by side
| LV | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | PIT 32 @ LV 13 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | PIT 23 @ LV 18 | PIT | LV -3 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | LV 10 @ PIT 13 | PIT | PIT -2.5 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | LV 26 @ PIT 17 | LV | PIT -5.5 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | PIT 21 @ LV 24 | LV | PIT -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away