LVSF
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 3.9 points stronger.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, 49ers +0.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,250 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · SF n/a | LV 22% · SF 78% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +344 · SF -344 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 30, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 7 and SF by 26.
Side by side
| LV | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | SF 37 @ LV 34 | SF | SF -10 |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 Wk 9 | LV 3 @ SF 34 | SF | LV -1.5 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | SF 13 @ LV 24 | LV | SF -8 |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 Wk 6 | LV 9 @ SF 17 | SF | SF -9 |
| 2006-10-08 | 2006 Wk 5 | LV 20 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away