LVWAS
Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Commanders -7.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Commanders win 5,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,840 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 16 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Raiders in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Commanders 16th (6.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · WAS n/a | LV 48% · WAS 52% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +107 · WAS -107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, LV 24.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 16 and WAS by 17.
Side by side
| LV | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | LV 24 @ WAS 41 | WAS | WAS -2.5 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | WAS 17 @ LV 15 | WAS | LV -1 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | LV 10 @ WAS 27 | WAS | LV -3.5 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | WAS 24 @ LV 14 | WAS | WAS -3.5 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | WAS 34 @ LV 13 | WAS | WAS -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away