MIAARI
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ARIArizona Cardinals
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cardinals can win
- Simulation: Cardinals win 5,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cardinals about 1.2 points stronger.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Dolphins 26th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why the Cardinals may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,300 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Dolphins in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cardinals lose by 14 or more.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 13th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ARI -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · ARI n/a | MIA 43% · ARI 57% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +132 · ARI -132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, MIA 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 14 and ARI by 20.
Side by side
| MIA | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | ARI 28 @ MIA 27 | ARI | MIA -4 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | MIA 34 @ ARI 31 | MIA | ARI -6 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | ARI 23 @ MIA 26 | MIA | ARI -2 |
| 2012-09-30 | 2012 Wk 4 | MIA 21 @ ARI 24 | ARI | ARI -4 |
| 2008-09-14 | 2008 Wk 2 | MIA 10 @ ARI 31 | ARI | ARI -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away