MIABUF
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
84% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 84% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 6.8 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 8,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 1,650 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Bills 29th (73.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -11.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · BUF n/a | MIA 16% · BUF 84% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +508 · BUF -508 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, MIA 17.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 4 and BUF by 29.
Side by side
| MIA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | BUF 13 @ MIA 30 | MIA | BUF -8.5 |
| 2025-09-18 | 2025 Wk 3 | MIA 21 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -12.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | MIA 27 @ BUF 30 | BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 2024-09-12 | 2024 Wk 2 | BUF 31 @ MIA 10 | BUF | MIA -2.5 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | BUF 21 @ MIA 14 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away