MIADEN
Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 5.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 8,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Dolphins -3.0.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 1,940 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 6 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Dolphins rank 20th (3.2), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.1 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · DEN n/a | MIA 19% · DEN 81% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +417 · DEN -417 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 27, MIA 16.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 6 and DEN by 27.
Side by side
| MIA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | DEN 20 @ MIA 70 | MIA | MIA -6 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | MIA 13 @ DEN 20 | DEN | MIA -4 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | DEN 9 @ MIA 35 | MIA | DEN -1 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | MIA 36 @ DEN 39 | DEN | DEN -6.5 |
| 2011-10-23 | 2011 Wk 7 | DEN 18 @ MIA 15 | DEN | DEN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away