MIALA
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
85% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 85% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 6.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 8,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 1,510 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 4 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Rams 27th (69.9).
- History: Dolphins won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -12 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · LA n/a | MIA 15% · LA 85% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +561 · LA -561 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 29, MIA 17.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 4 and LA by 29.
Side by side
| MIA | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-11 | 2024 Wk 10 | MIA 23 @ LA 15 | MIA | LA -2.5 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | LA 17 @ MIA 28 | MIA | LA -3.5 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | MIA 14 @ LA 10 | MIA | LA -1 |
| 2012-10-14 | 2012 Wk 6 | LA 14 @ MIA 17 | MIA | MIA -5.5 |
| 2008-11-30 | 2008 Wk 13 | MIA 16 @ LA 12 | MIA | MIA -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away