MIALAC
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 3.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 6,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Dolphins cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Chargers rank 19th (6.0%), Dolphins 30th (3.3%).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,220 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Chargers 30th (73.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chargers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Chargers rank 32nd in point differential per game (-10.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.5 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · LAC n/a | MIA 32% · LAC 68% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +210 · LAC -210 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 24, MIA 19.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 10 and LAC by 22.
Side by side
| MIA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | LAC 29 @ MIA 27 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | MIA 36 @ LAC 34 | MIA | LAC -3 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | MIA 17 @ LAC 23 | LAC | MIA -3 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | LAC 21 @ MIA 29 | MIA | MIA -1 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | LAC 30 @ MIA 10 | LAC | LAC -15 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away