MIAPIT
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 4.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Steelers win 7,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Dolphins -3.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Steelers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,290 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.2 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · PIT n/a | MIA 23% · PIT 77% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +336 · PIT -336 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, MIA 17.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 7 and PIT by 25.
Side by side
| MIA | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 2025 Wk 15 | MIA 15 @ PIT 28 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | PIT 10 @ MIA 16 | MIA | MIA -7.5 |
| 2019-10-28 | 2019 Wk 8 | MIA 14 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -14 |
| 2017-01-08 | 2016 Wild Card | MIA 12 @ PIT 30 | PIT | PIT -11 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | PIT 15 @ MIA 30 | MIA | PIT -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away