MIAWAS
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Dolphins 26th (-0.5).
- Simulation: Commanders win 6,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Commanders about 1.6 points stronger.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,780 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 12 or more.
- History: Dolphins won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Commanders rank 32nd in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.05).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.9 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · WAS n/a | MIA 38% · WAS 62% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +164 · WAS -164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, MIA 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 12 and WAS by 21.
Side by side
| MIA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | WAS 13 @ MIA 16 | MIA | MIA -2.5 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | MIA 45 @ WAS 15 | MIA | MIA -8.5 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | WAS 17 @ MIA 16 | WAS | WAS -6 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | MIA 17 @ WAS 10 | MIA | MIA -4 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | WAS 9 @ MIA 20 | MIA | MIA -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away