MINBAL
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 16 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Ravens rank 13th (3.7), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · BAL n/a | MIN 51% · BAL 49% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -104 · BAL +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 21, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 17 and BAL by 16.
Side by side
| MIN | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | BAL 27 @ MIN 19 | BAL | BAL -4.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | MIN 31 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | BAL 16 @ MIN 24 | MIN | MIN -5 |
| 2013-12-08 | 2013 Wk 14 | MIN 26 @ BAL 29 | BAL | BAL -6 |
| 2009-10-18 | 2009 Wk 6 | BAL 31 @ MIN 33 | MIN | MIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away