MINCHI
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Bears win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Bears rank 19th (6.9%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Strength: Bears rank 2nd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (4.6).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 15 or more.
- History: Vikings won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · CHI n/a | MIN 49% · CHI 51% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +104 · CHI -104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 23, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 15 and CHI by 17.
Side by side
| MIN | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | MIN 9 @ CHI 3 | MIN | CHI -4.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | CHI 19 @ MIN 17 | CHI | MIN -3 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025 Wk 1 | MIN 27 @ CHI 24 | MIN | MIN -1.5 |
| 2024-12-16 | 2024 Wk 15 | CHI 12 @ MIN 30 | MIN | MIN -7 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | MIN 30 @ CHI 27 | MIN | MIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away