MINCLE
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Browns +0.3.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 39.9 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · CLE n/a | MIN 67% · CLE 33% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -205 · CLE +205 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 17, MIN 22.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 21 and CLE by 11.
Side by side
| MIN | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | MIN 21 @ CLE 17 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | CLE 14 @ MIN 7 | CLE | CLE -1 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | MIN 33 @ CLE 16 | MIN | MIN -11 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | CLE 31 @ MIN 27 | CLE | MIN -7 |
| 2009-09-13 | 2009 Wk 1 | MIN 34 @ CLE 20 | MIN | MIN -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away