MINGB
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Simulation: Packers win 5,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Packers rank 3rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (4.5).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 5,000 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Penalty yards per game: Vikings rank 3rd (45.7), Packers 32nd (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · GB n/a | MIN 50% · GB 50% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +100 · GB -100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 21, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 16 and GB by 17.
Side by side
| MIN | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-3 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | GB 22 @ MIN 39 | MIN | MIN -1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | GB 3 @ MIN 16 | MIN | MIN -12.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | MIN 6 @ GB 23 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | GB 25 @ MIN 27 | MIN | GB -1 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | MIN 31 @ GB 29 | MIN | GB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away