MINHOU
Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Simulation: Texans win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Texans rank 15th (5.7%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 0.6 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Texans 11th (+0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.9 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · HOU n/a | MIN 50% · HOU 50% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +101 · HOU -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 20, MIN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 16 and HOU by 17.
Side by side
| MIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | HOU 7 @ MIN 34 | MIN | HOU -2 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | MIN 31 @ HOU 23 | MIN | HOU -3.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | HOU 13 @ MIN 31 | MIN | MIN -6 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | MIN 23 @ HOU 6 | MIN | HOU -7.5 |
| 2008-11-02 | 2008 Wk 9 | HOU 21 @ MIN 28 | MIN | MIN -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away