MINLAC
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Vikings cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · LAC n/a | MIN 64% · LAC 36% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -175 · LAC +175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 19, MIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 21 and LAC by 13.
Side by side
| MIN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 0-6 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-23 | 2025 Wk 8 | MIN 10 @ LAC 37 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | LAC 28 @ MIN 24 | LAC | MIN -1 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | MIN 27 @ LAC 20 | MIN | LAC -3 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | MIN 39 @ LAC 10 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | LAC 14 @ MIN 31 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away